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We should buy players who are seeing plenty of volume but are underperforming due to bad luck. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers. The main purpose of using my XFP model is to help you win trades during the season. For a more in-depth breakdown of Expected Fantasy Points, click here. XFP essentially shows what a typical player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. These historical data attributes correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored (PPR scoring). XFP calculates the value of each target and rushing attempt based on the distance to the end zone and air yards. I built the model below based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (XFP).
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